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- Article name
- The potential for saving greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector due to the replacement capacity of energy resources
- Authors
- FILIMONOVA I. V., , FilimonovaIV@list.ru, Novosibirsk State University; Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
KOMAROVA A. V., , a.komarova@g.nsu.ru, Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
NOVIKOV A. Yu., , a.novikov2@g.nsu.ru, Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
- Keywords
- greenhouse gas emissions / simulation modeling / emission forecasting / GRP energy intensity / GRP carbon intensity / economic growth / climate projects
- Year
- 2025 Issue 2 Pages 18 - 28
- Code EDN
- RDONYQ
- Code DOI
- 10.52190/2073-2589_2025_2_18
- Abstract
- The article discusses certain issues of carbon regulation related to the assessment of the climatic consequences of the transformation of the structure of consumption of energy resources in the region, as a result of the substitution of fuels, primarily coal for natural gas. An algorithm for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon intensity of the Novosibirsk region's GRP is proposed, taking into account economic development scenarios and options for changing the structure of energy consumed. It has been established that in all scenarios, the growth rate of GRP outstrips the rate of reduction in the energy intensity of the economy, which leads to an inevitable increase in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the increase in emissions can be slowed down by replacing energy sources. Calculations have shown that if there are no changes in the structure of energy consumption in the Novosibirsk Region by 2030 and the target economic growth rates are reached, greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 8.2 million tons of CO2 (40.7 %), and if about 75 % of coal is replaced by natural gas in the fuel combustion sector - by only 0.7 million tons of CO2 (3.3 %) compared to 2020.
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