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- Article name
- Assessment of the probability of accidents at water supply facilities
- Authors
- ALEKSEEV V. A., , alekseevv@istu.ru, Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University, Izhevsk, Russia
USOLTSEV V. P., , vpusoltcev@mail.ru, Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University, Izhevsk, Russia
SHULMIN D. N., , shbr17@yandex.ru, Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University, Izhevsk, Russia
- Keywords
- accident / water supply facility / probability / time between occurrence of accidents / time to eliminate the consequences of accidents / Poisson distribution / Pearson criterion
- Year
- 2025 Issue 4 Pages 20 - 26
- Code EDN
- IENPDX
- Code DOI
- 10.52190/2073-2589_2025_4_20
- Abstract
- The article considers the solution of the problem of determining the probability of industrial accidents using the example of water supply facilities. It is shown that the known methods for estimating the probability of accidents do not work in conditions where the time intervals between the occurrence of accidents and the time to eliminate the consequences of accidents are commensurate in time. A new algorithm for calculating the probability of accidents is given. In this case, it is assumed that a certain number of accidents occurred during the observation period, while the duration of the elimination of accidents is zero. Then, for each moment of occurrence of accidents, the corresponding time for eliminating the consequences of this accident is added. The proposed approach has been tested on a number of examples of estimating the probability of accidents at the Izhevsk city water supply in recent years. The article presents graphs of the probability of accidents at the Izhevsk city water supply according to the Poisson distribution. The consistency of the theoretical and statistical distributions was verified using the Pearson agreement criterion c2. The sensitivity of the proposed algorithm for estimating the probability of an accident is in the range of several percent.
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